Copper Market Analysis 2026 – All-Time High

Copper Market Analysis

Copper Hit an All-Time High at $6.70 — Tariff Hoarding, a Congo Export Ban, and a Sulfuric Acid Shortage All Converged at Once

Key Questions

Our July 26 update ended with copper round-tripping back to where it started — two weeks later, copper hit an all-time high. What changed?

Worth being direct about the scale of this shift, since it’s larger than a typical two-week move. Our last update closed with copper back near $6.30-6.37/lb, having round-tripped through a seven-week high on a China scrap story that then faded. Here’s what happened next: on August 5, COMEX September copper touched a record $6.7045/lb, surpassing the prior intraday peak of $6.69 set in mid-May — and settled at a record $6.703. London copper broke above $14,000/tonne for the first time in two months, climbing toward $14,050-14,300 and closing in on January’s all-time record of $14,500. So what does this mean in practice: this wasn’t a single-catalyst move. Record US tariff-driven stockpiling, a new Congo copper and cobalt concentrate export ban, a sulfuric acid shortage tied to the Strait of Hormuz closure, and continued China scrap tightness all landed within days of each other — a genuinely different order of event than the China-only story that drove our last update’s round trip.

Since our last update, at a glance:

• Copper price: ↑↑↑ from $6.30-6.37 (July 24) to an all-time high of $6.7045 (August 5), trading near $6.72 in subsequent sessions
• London copper: ↑↑ broke $14,000/tonne (August 4) for the first time in two months, reaching $14,050-14,300+, nearing January’s $14,500 record
• US tariff stockpiling: ↑↑ more than 200,000 tonnes of copper arrived at US ports in July, the largest monthly inflow since records began in 2014; COMEX inventories up more than 40% year-to-date
• New driver: ⚠️ Congo banned copper and cobalt concentrate exports (order dated June 29, revealed by Reuters August 6), forcing domestic processing
• New driver: ⚠️ Strait of Hormuz closure has cut roughly half of Persian Gulf seaborne sulfur shipments; combined with China’s own sulfuric acid export ban through December, roughly a quarter of global acid supply — critical for copper refining — has been erased
• NY-London price gap: ↑↑ widened to roughly $640/tonne, nearly double July’s average of ~$350/tonne
• China scrap story: 🟡 Yangshan premium remains elevated versus its January baseline near $20/tonne, though the most recent readings show signs of cooling from its peak
• US tariff decision: ⏳ still pending — Commerce Secretary Lutnick’s June 30 deadline passed more than a month ago with no final ruling published

The US is hoarding record copper ahead of a tariff that still hasn’t been decided — why would traders front-run an unconfirmed tariff?

Worth explaining the mechanics plainly, since the logic is straightforward once laid out. President Trump’s Section 232 order proposes a phased tariff on refined copper imports — 15% starting in 2027, rising to 30% in 2028 — layered on top of a 50% tariff already in force since August 2025 on semi-finished copper products like pipes, wire, and cable. Here’s the catch that’s driving the current rush: the refined-copper tariff itself was never finalized. A Commerce Department review was due by June 30, 2026; that deadline passed over a month ago with no decision published. So what does this mean in practice: every month the decision stays open is a month in which importing copper into the US costs less than waiting — a genuine incentive to keep shipping metal in regardless of whether the tariff ultimately lands at 15%, some other rate, or is scrapped entirely. TD Securities’ Ryan McKay called tariff speculation “the main impulse” behind the rally, and StoneX’s Michael Cuoco said the arbitrage is “ruling the roost over demand growth.” Worth flagging the risk this creates: buying ahead of a deadline pulls future consumption forward rather than creating new demand, meaning some of July’s record 200,000-plus tonne inflow likely covered needs that would otherwise have shown up later — raising the real possibility of a softer US import period once the tariff decision actually lands, whatever it turns out to be.

Congo just banned copper and cobalt concentrate exports — will this one actually stick, or does it get watered down like the last one?

Worth applying real skepticism here rather than treating the ban as settled, since Congo’s own recent history argues for caution. Congo’s government banned exports of both copper and cobalt concentrate via an order dated June 29, 2026, revealed by Reuters on August 6 — a move explicitly aimed at forcing miners to process more of the country’s copper and cobalt domestically rather than shipping raw concentrate abroad. Major affected operators include China’s CMOC (the world’s largest cobalt producer), Glencore, Huayou Cobalt, Zijin Mining, Ivanhoe Mines, and Eurasian Resources Group. Here’s the reason for caution: Congo’s prior cobalt-specific export ban, imposed in February 2025, was repeatedly softened through waivers, and at least one major producer found a workaround by processing cobalt into hydroxide rather than shipping raw concentrate — sidestepping the letter of that rule. This new order includes its own one-year waiver mechanism “under strategic circumstances,” the same kind of language that allowed the earlier ban’s exceptions to multiply. What this means in practice: the ban is real and already reflected in this update’s price action, but whether it holds as strict policy over the coming months, or follows Congo’s established pattern of loosening into a patchwork of waivers, is a genuinely open question — one worth tracking rather than assuming resolved in either direction.

Key Facts

Price Action

• COMEX copper: all-time high of $6.7045/lb intraday on August 5, 2026, settling at a record $6.703; trading near $6.72 in subsequent sessions
• 2026 year-to-date gain: approximately 17-18.6%; 12-month gain: more than 50%
• London (LME) copper: broke $14,000/tonne on August 4 for the first time in two months, reaching $14,050-$14,300+, approaching January’s all-time record of $14,500
• NY-London premium: widened to roughly $640/tonne, nearly double July’s average of approximately $350/tonne
• LME backwardation: cash copper commanding a premium of more than $100 over three-month metal, the widest since January — signaling physical tightness outside the US
• Technical picture: daily RSI near 70 (overbought territory); a close below $6.60 would delay the bullish setup, a loss of $6.00 would invalidate it; chart-based upside target near $6.85

US Tariff Arbitrage & Stockpiling

• Section 232 refined copper tariff: proposed at 15% starting January 2027, rising to 30% in 2028 — still not finalized; Commerce’s June 30, 2026 review deadline passed with no decision published
• Existing 50% tariff on semi-finished copper products (pipes, wire, rods, cable) has been in force since August 2025
• More than 200,000 tonnes of copper arrived at US ports in July 2026 — the largest monthly inflow since records began in 2014
• COMEX inventories up more than 40% year-to-date to record levels; total US copper stockpiles, including private port storage, estimated above 1 million tonnes

New Supply-Side Shocks

• Congo (DRC) banned copper and cobalt concentrate exports, effective immediately, per an order dated June 29 and revealed August 6, 2026; one-year waivers possible under strategic circumstances; a new by-product tax regime carries a three-month transition period
• Congo’s prior cobalt-only export ban (February 2025) was repeatedly softened via waivers before being replaced with an annual quota system — a relevant precedent for how strictly this new ban may ultimately be enforced
• The Strait of Hormuz closure has cut roughly half of Persian Gulf seaborne sulfur shipments; combined with China’s own sulfuric acid export ban running through December, an estimated quarter of global acid supply has been erased — a direct constraint on copper leaching and refining capacity

China Scrap Story (Ongoing)

• Yangshan copper premium — a gauge of China’s import demand for refined copper — spiked from roughly $20/tonne in January to over $100/tonne in July on Beijing’s VAT-fraud crackdown on scrap copper trade
• Goldman Sachs attributed the tightening mainly to “substitution from scrap into cathode, rather than to end demand”
• Most recent readings show signs of cooling from peak levels, alongside a modest rise in Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories — a signal Chinese import pull may be moderating even as the broader global price stays elevated on the other drivers above

The live chart below reflects a copper-linked equity proxy in real time.

Four Drivers, Not One — Here’s Why That Matters for How Durable This Rally Is

The instinctive read on copper hitting an all-time high is that a single powerful catalyst is driving it. The data says something more specific: at least four largely independent forces — US tariff-arbitrage hoarding, Congo’s new export ban, the Hormuz-linked sulfuric acid shortage, and residual China scrap tightness — landed in the same two-week window, each verifiable through separate reporting rather than one story amplified across outlets. If this reads wrong: this assumes all four drivers are genuinely independent rather than correlated symptoms of the same underlying trade. If the US tariff decision lands soon and copper that was hoarded ahead of it gets released back into normal trade flows, a meaningful chunk of this rally’s most tariff-specific driver could unwind quickly, even if Congo’s ban and the acid shortage persist on their own separate timelines. Conversely, if the tariff decision keeps getting delayed, the hoarding dynamic that TD Securities and StoneX both flagged as the dominant near-term driver could keep extending gains independent of whether the other three factors resolve favorably or not.

Valuation Context

Copper’s move should be read against its own record levels and the specific technical and fundamental signals available, rather than a manufactured target. At the current all-time-high range of roughly $6.70-6.72, the metal sits within striking distance of chart-based resistance near $6.85, while a daily RSI near 70 signals overbought conditions — though the same source notes prior overbought readings in December 2025 and May 2026 preceded consolidation rather than a reversal, framing the current reading as evidence of trend strength rather than an automatic sell signal. The 2026 forecast balance debate we’ve tracked in prior updates — Cochilco’s small projected surplus versus JPMorgan’s larger deficit call — has shifted more clearly toward JPMorgan’s deficit thesis given this update’s genuine supply-side developments (Congo’s ban, the acid shortage), although neither forecast has yet been formally revised to incorporate these developments.

Worth being explicit about what would move this in each direction: a durable path toward $6.85 and beyond would require the US tariff decision to either confirm the proposed rate (validating the hoarding) or continue being delayed (extending the arbitrage), combined with Congo’s export ban holding rather than loosening into waivers. A reversal case — copper giving back a meaningful share of this move — would most likely require a swift, market-clarifying tariff decision that releases hoarded US inventory back into normal trade, combined with Congo’s ban following its predecessor’s pattern of softening. This is not a probability-weighted single number — it’s a band bounded by the metal’s own current technical levels on one side and the genuine uncertainty around how many of this update’s four drivers prove durable on the other.

Current Market Data

Copper trades continuously on COMEX and the London Metal Exchange. As of the most recent trading data, copper trades near $6.70-6.72/lb on COMEX, having set a fresh all-time high of $6.7045 on August 5, 2026, up sharply from $6.30-6.37 at our last update. London copper trades near $14,050-$14,300/tonne, approaching January’s all-time record of $14,500. The live chart below reflects a copper-linked equity proxy.

Sources

• MINING.COM — Copper Price Sets Fresh US Record as Tariff-Driven Hoarding Meets Shrinking Supply
• Bloomberg — Comex Copper Climbs to Record High on Tariff Speculation
• EBC Financial Group — Copper Tariff Bets Push Copper Price to a Record $6.703
• Mining Weekly / Reuters — Congo Bans Exports of Copper, Cobalt Concentrates
• Yahoo Finance — Copper Price Hits New All-Time High as $6.85 Becomes the Next Target
• Finimize — Copper Holds Above $14,000 As China Demand Cools
• The White House — Adjusting Imports of Copper Into the United States (Presidential Proclamation)
• Trading Economics — Copper

Copper’s Hormuz-linked sulfuric acid constraint connects directly to our Oil coverage of the Strait’s ongoing status, while the same tariff-arbitrage dynamic driving US stockpiling offers a useful contrast to Aluminum‘s separate Gulf-supply exposure this update.

About MP24 Analyst X

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MP24 Analyst X is the public-facing pseudonym used for MatrixPro24’s research and editorial work across macroeconomics, commodities, cryptocurrencies, equities, and global financial markets. MatrixPro24 research emphasizes evidence, transparency, source quality, falsifiability, and structured reasoning over speculation and market hype.

Disclaimer

This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized financial or investment advice or a MatrixPro24 recommendation to buy, sell, or hold a financial instrument. This research-methodology and editorial review was completed on August 13, 2026. Market-price figures and dated market reactions remain tied to the observation dates stated in the article; use the live TradingView chart for current market pricing. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Conduct your own independent research before making financial decisions.